Parallel Questions

March 25, 2007 in Epidemiology, Globalization, predictive frameworks, Public Health, Terrorism, War

Mark C R UK asks, in response to my post Posse Comitatus, Requiescat In Pace:

“But how many functional enemies willing to disperse such agents and have the (alarming) patience to wait for for years before mortality begins?”

And this questions fits right in with the subject of a draft post I had been writing, and it is is also a question others have been asking as well. The question is phrased slightly differently, but in essence it is the same question. (Incidentally, Mark has buried the most important word in his question in parenthesis.) Here is a report summarized over at Bugs ‘N’ Gas Gal’s site:

Three Explanations for al-Qaeda’s Lack of a CBRN Attack

By Chris Quillen

The evidence of al-Qaeda’s interest in conducting a terrorist attack with chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons appears compelling. As early as 1998, al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden declared the acquisition of CBRN weapons a “religious duty” for Muslims [1]. He followed up in 2003 by asking for and receiving a fatwa from Saudi Sheikh Nasir bin Hamid al-Fahd that condoned the use of CBRN weapons by Muslims against infidels [2]. Combined with the multitude of warnings from al-Qaeda associates that a CBRN attack against the West is not only forthcoming but also long overdue, the Muslim “duty to warn” has been firmly established. In al-Qaeda’s opinion, no further justification is needed and no additional warnings are required [3].

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Given this stated desire and apparent capability to conduct a CBRN terrorist attack, why has al-Qaeda not yet launched an attack with such weapons? This analysis explores three possible explanations for this lack of a CBRN attack: disruption, deterrence and, most disturbingly, patience.